The latest Circana data revealed mass market sales growth outpaced prestige for the first time since 2020.
Is it a hiccup for prestige or the beginning of consumer pullback in spending on premium beauty? And do the numbers hint at a potential resurgence of mass-market beauty?
There are two scenarios.
US prestige beauty industry sales revenue was flat in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to Circana. Mass market sales experienced a year-over-year dollar increase of 3%—albeit driven by price increases. Unit sales were down 1%.
Still, it was the first time in five years that mass gains outclassed prestige. At that time, essential retailers such as Target, Walmart, CVS, and Walgreens had an edge over prestige retailers that were closed for several months. The footfall in pharmacies for vaccines boosted beauty sales, too.
Larissa Jensen, Circana’s Senior Vice President and Global Beauty Advisor, doesn't portend a big migration to mass and views the first quarterly as an anomaly. “I think this was a blip. What we have seen so far in Quarter Two is that prestige is on the recovery side. If you look at the weekly trends, prestige is on an upward trajectory and outperforming mass in units.
One of the issues in the first quarter, she noted, was environmental, such as snow in Florida and the fires in California. "People were turtling—a term when consumers just want to stay in."
She pointed to a CivicScience report stating that the percentage of US adults reporting a decreased desire to leave the house climbed to 35%, surpassing pandemic levels in 2020 and 2021.
Prestige beauty was impacted more than mass because (other than online shopping, which did grow) going to a department store, Ulta Beauty, or Sephora requires a specific trip versus a Walmart, Target, or drugstore where people tend to visit for needs such as groceries or prescriptions.
It is not a surprise to industry observers the beauty industry is slowing down. "Mass dollar growth drives from price, while the strong prestige beauty performance over the past four years makes it difficult to continue to anniversary those numbers and post growth on top of them," said Elise Morgan, Beauty Insights Lead at The Emerson Group.
And while beauty has always been resilient, some believe tariffs and an uncertain economy might be the tipping point sending shoppers to lower-priced options.
Recent NielsenIQ data for the four weeks ended May 31 showed mass beauty dollar sales were up 3.5% versus last year, indicating sales are holding up strong.
“It's too soon to really tell if it's a blip or a movement, but it does make sense in the cultural context,” said Allison Collins, co-founder and Managing Director of The Consumer Collective. “People are worrying about money, they're worrying about a recession; it may simply not be the time they want to spend $72 on moisturizer instead of $20.”
Karen Young, CEO of The Young Group, agreed. “I think consumers are being cautious," she said noting an unpredictable future tied to tariffs and the economy which is putting people on edge. "We might be here for a while.”
Talk of tariffs pushed Americans to start to shop for better deals and cut back on products viewed as nonessential, according to Sarah Jindal, Senior Director of Beauty and Personal Care Americas, at Mintel. “Trading down becomes a standard practice when faced with purchases that are viewed as must-have personal care products, like shampoo and deodorant.” Jindal cited Mintel's research, showing that 27% of makeup users are researching and shopping cheaper alternatives to expensive makeup products more now than a year ago.
She noted a resurgence in “drugstore beauty” across haircare, skincare, and makeup that can boost the mass market. "The rise of dupe culture and the growing use of social media for product comparisons have made it easier for shoppers to seek budget-friendly options.”
Collins at Consumer Collective believes that although the economy is a big piece of what drives beauty, mass and masstige brands have improved. “They have cute packaging, they have good products, they have good marketing and merchandising. They make consumers feel like they're in on something, not like they're being taken for a ride for some company's margins.”
She agreed that dupe culture plays a role. “A lot of people feel like they can get essentially the same thing for less money, and sometimes they can. If you can get the same feeling from buying mass or masstige and you can save money, in this economy, I get it. The pool of people who are impacted by uncertainty, recession fears, grocery prices, etc., is much bigger than the pool of people who aren't,” she said.
Several mass brands are putting up growth numbers. E.l.f. just posted a 21.5% sales increase in the last four weeks per NielsenIQ. Milani, according to Chief Marketing Officer Jeremy Lowenstein, continues to grow, fueled by new launches such as its Clean Start Prep Step Facial Mist, which he says is building basket transactions. Even Revlon is showing new life under Michelle Peluso who took on the CEO role last November from CVS.
While mass brands will most likely take price hikes—e.l.f already announced it will raise prices by $1 in August—the tickets are still lower than prestige.
“People know they are getting quality for half the price of prestige. People compare our Milani Skin Conceal + Perfect Blur Out Skin Tint Stick [retailing for under $17] to Dior [Forever Skin Perfect Foundation Stick priced at $52].
The acceptance of dupes is a big deal for the mass market. Suave, for example, is riding both the rave of a resurgence in drugstore haircare fueled by social media as well as its luxury for less positioning. Suave’s Bonding Infusion collection, which is positioned as an alternative to Olaplex (under $5 versus $30 to $70), is part of an overhaul of the legacy brand, including new formulas and new marketing.
Despite indicators in favor of mass, the channel faces challenges threatening its success. The drug channel continues to drag down overall gains posted by multiunit doors like discounters, dollar stores, supermarkets, and club stores.
The drugstore industry is under massive consolidation, with more than one in three US retail pharmacies closing in 2010, according to a study from researchers at UC Berkeley School of Public Health and USC.
CVS and Walgreens were among those closing hundreds of doors, and Rite Aid is selling off all its stores after filing bankruptcy for a second time.
The first quarter was also disappointing for Target; results declined 3% from last year. Ulta Beauty also announced it was pausing expansion of its shop-within-stores at Target.
Self-service mass stores still face friction caused by hundreds of products under lock and key.
Industry experts point to Costco, Amazon, and Walmart as retailers blazing a trail in beauty.
Walmart is pulling all the levers. It staged a beauty event in April with 1,800 price incentives across skincare, cosmetics, hair, and accessories. Beyond deals, Walmart introduced Beauty Bars in 40 select stores—a pilot program where customers can explore new products, talk to beauty experts, and test samples, according to Vinima K. Shekhar, Walmart's Vice President of Beauty.
Walmart isn’t just about mass brands anymore. More than 40 premium brands have been added over the past year through its Premium Beauty at Walmart platform, such as Perricone, bareMinerals, Glow Recipe, Olaplex, and CosRx.
Emerging brands get a shot through the retailer’s Walmart Start beauty accelerator program. The brands in this year’s class include Lattafa, Maison 276, Kativa, and Nappy Styles. Walmart also has its Marketplace where third-party sellers can sell on its website.
The retailer just kicked off a program called “Walmart. Who Knew,” headlined by actors Walton Goggins and Stephanie Beatriz, which was designed to tout the chain's improvements in stores and online over the past few years. Walmart said 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart, but many don't know all of the retailers’ capabilities. The spots highlight the more than half a billion items available online and in its app.
During a call about the results, Walmart executives said beauty and personal care produced solid unit growth. One ingredient in its success is using AI to enhance its assortment and inventory optimization, among other benefits.
Experts don't count Target, Walgreens, Ulta Beauty, and CVS in the shopper loyalty race. Ulta Beauty is already showing strong results under its new president and CEO, Kecia Steelman. CVS continues to tweak its merchandise assortment for an easier-to-shop environment. Walgreens is sprucing up its mix with dupes of prestige products like Glow Recipe’s Watermelon Glow AHA Night Treatment. Target continues to be a launch pad for emerging brands like Daise, MCoBeauty, and NatureWell.
“Whether or not we see mass continue to boom, I think, will depend on economic factors rather than beauty-industry ones. Even without Ultas in every store, Target still has a pretty solid beauty assortment,” Collins concluded.
